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2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

I thought I’d be presumptuous enough to try my hand at speculating where the 2008 albums might end up on the all-time list once the next update is posted. Using the 2007 album list as a guidepost, I started with the point totals from Henrik’s initial end-of-year spreadsheet for ’08, with 25 as a cutoff (every album that had at least 26 points on the EOY spreadsheet for 2007 ended up making the AM all-time top 3000 when the last update was posted in November).

Then I added each album’s Metascore and All Music Guide rating, which will figure into the calculations and in some cases have a pretty significant impact on an album’s ranking. Again using 2007 as a guidepost, I identified a few albums below my 25-point cutoff that will very likely vault into the top 3000 because of those ratings (specifically: Shearwater, Randy Newman, Drive-by Truckers and the first Los Campesinos! album).

One wild card here is THE BEDLAM IN GOLIATH by the Mars Volta. Its scores are relatively unimpressive except for a 4.5-star AMG rating – BUT it is the only 2008 album to score a main entry in 1000 RECORDINGS TO HEAR BEFORE YOU DIE. So I’m including it. Another potential wild card is Amadou & Mariam’s WELCOME TO MALI, but I’m going to assume it is more likely to make the cut with 2009’s albums. Of course, the biggest wild-card factor of all is the fact that there’s surely going to be a lot more movement on the AM 3000 with the coming update than there was in November, so there could be fewer 2008 entries than we think.

In any case, the results of my laughably crude calculations are below. The following 2008 albums (plus a couple that were technically released in ’07) might make the all-time top 3000 list as follows, in this order:

TOP 500:
Portishead, THIRD
FLEET FOXES
TV on the Radio, DEAR SCIENCE
Bon Iver, FOR EMMA, FOREVER AGO
VAMPIRE WEEKEND

501-1000:
MGMT, ORACULAR SPECTACULAR
Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds, DIG!!! LAZARUS DIG!!!
Deerhunter, MICROCASTLE / WEIRD ERA CONT.
SANTOGOLD
Elbow, THE SELDOM SEEN KID
HERCULES AND LOVE AFFAIR
Lil Wayne, THA CARTER III

1001-2000:
Sigur Ros, MED SUD I EYRUM VID SPILUM ENDALAUST
Cut Copy, IN GHOST COLOURS
GLASVEGAS
Erykah Badu, NEW AMERYKAH (4th WORLD WAR)
No Age, NOUNS
Hot Chip, MADE IN THE DARK
The Hold Steady, STAY POSITIVE
The Last Shadow Puppets, THE AGE OF THE UNDERSTATEMENT
Fuck Buttons, STREET HORRRSING
The Bug, LONDON ZOO
Kings of Leon, ONLY BY THE NIGHT
M83, SATURDAYS=YOUTH
Foals, ANTIDOTES
Coldplay, VIVA LA VIDA OR DEATH AND ALL HIS FRIENDS
Gang Gang Dance, SAINT DYMPHNA
Metallica, DEATH MAGNETIC
Late of the Pier, FANTASY BLACK CHANNEL
Flying Lotus, LOS ANGELES
Lindstrom, WHERE YOU GO I GO TOO
Dodos, VISITER
CRYSTAL CASTLES
Lykke Li, YOUTH NOVELS
Fucked Up, THE CHEMISTRY OF COMMON LIFE

2001-3000:
Girl Talk, FEED THE ANIMALS
Neon Neon, STAINLESS STYLE
Why?, ALOPECIA
R.E.M., ACCELERATE
The Raconteurs, CONSOLERS OF THE LONELY
Beck, MODERN GUILT
Shearwater, ROOK
Randy Newman, HARPS & ANGELS
Drive-by Truckers, BRIGHTER THAN CREATION’S DARK
Death Cab for Cutie, NARROW STAIRS
Beach House, DEVOTION
The Mars Volta, THE BEDLAM IN GOLIATH
British Sea Power, DO YOU LIKE ROCK MUSIC?
The Gaslight Anthem, THE ’59 SOUND
My Morning Jacket, EVIL URGES
Spiritualized, SONGS IN A & E
The Kills, MIDNIGHT BOOM
The Walkmen, YOU & ME
Los Campesinos!, HOLD ON NOW, YOUNGSTER…
Okkervil River, THE STAND INS

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

Is that also your prediction for your order of them? You think Third > Fleet Foxes > Dear Science? I was kind of hoping FF would take album of the year, even though Third is top on the spreadsheet. Isn't that what happened with In Rainbows. Also, do you think of them will crack 200?

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

SR
Is that also your prediction for your order of them? You think Third > Fleet Foxes > Dear Science? I was kind of hoping FF would take album of the year, even though Third is top on the spreadsheet. Isn't that what happened with In Rainbows. Also, do you think of them will crack 200?


THIRD is considerably ahead on points (337 to FF's 310 and DEAR SCIENCE's even 300), and while its Metascore of 85 trails that of both the others (87 and 88 respectively), FLEET FOXES's AMG rating is only 4 stars while THIRD and DEAR SCIENCE got 4.5 apiece. So, THIRD still looks like the ultimate winner.

However, to answer your second question, I think all three albums will end up within the top 200 - when Henrik did the 2007 EOY spreadsheet there wasn't a single album with over 300 points, and considering that IN RAINBOWS and NEON BIBLE are in the top 200 it makes sense that our three dominant 2008 albums will join (and eclipse) them.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

Thats a shame, because as good as those three albums are, they don't hold a candle to the top 3 albums of 2007. Hopefully the eod lists will correct this.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

SR
Thats a shame, because as good as those three albums are, they don't hold a candle to the top 3 albums of 2007. Hopefully the eod lists will correct this.


I couldn't agree more. My top album of 2008 (Dear Science) doesn't even come close to my top 4 albums of 2007 (Sound of Silver, In Rainbows, Neon Bible, Person Pitch).

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

My top 10 albums since 2007 are

1. Animal Collective - Merriweather Post Pavillion
2. Radiohead - In Rainbows
3. Arcade Fire - Neon Bible
4. LCD Soundsystem - Sound of Silver
5. Fleet Foxes - Fleet Foxes
6. Panda Bear - Person Pitch
7. The National - Boxer
8. TV on the Radio - Dear Science
9. M.I.A - Kala
10. Anmal Collective - Strawberry Jam

Portishead would prob clock in at 11th, behind seven 07 albums. Also I didn't release how strong AC has been recently.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

1. Sound of Silver- LCD Soundsystem
2. In Rainbows- Radiohead
3. Neon Bible- Arcade Fire
4. Merriweather Post Pavilion- Animal Collective
5. Person Pitch- Panda Bear
6. Dear Science- TV on the radio
7. Fleet Foxes- Fleet Foxes
8. Kala- M.I.A.
9. Third- Portishead
10. Veckatimest- Grizzly Bear

I suppose more 2009 albums will come in when the years over. But still, pretty weak for 2008.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

I like this game!

Here are my top 10 since 2007:

1. LCD Soundsystem- Sound of Silver (2007)
2. Chromeo- Fancy Footwork (2007)
3. !!!- Myth Takes (2007)
4. Bat for Lashes- Two Suns (2009)
5. Yeah Yeah Yeahs- It's Blitz (2009)
6. Duffy- Rockferry (2008)
7. PJ Harvey- White Chalk (2007)
8. Prince- LotusFlower (2009)
9. Ladyhawke- Ladyhawke (2008)
10. The Cure- 4:13 Dream (2008)

2007 owns.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

I think Fleet Foxes is going to end up higher in the AM list, because it's going to do a lot better than Third both in all these random new 'Best albums in the last 20 years' lists, plus a lot better on the end of decade lists.

But I think Animal Collective is going to end up higher than both.

My top few since 2007:
1. Sound of Silver
2. Boxer
3. Third

Nothing 2008 touches Sound of Silver or Boxer, but I think the #20 for 2008 is a lot better than the #20 for 2007. 2007 falls off more sharply, with way fewer memorable albums.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

1. Fleet Foxes- Fleet Foxes 08
2. Neon Bible- The Arcade Fire 07
3. Strawberry Jam- Animal Collective 07
4. Merriweather Post Pavillion- Animal Collective 09
5. Hold On Now, Youngster- Los Campesinos! 08
6. Person Pitch- Panda Bear 07
7. Vampire Weekend- Vampire Weekend 08
8. 45:33- LCD Soundsystem 07
9. In Rainbows- Radiohead 07
10. Dear Science- TV on the Radio 08


and i just bought the dirty projectors alum. we'll see how that goes. hahaha

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

BillAdama
I think the #20 for 2008 is a lot better than the #20 for 2007. 2007 falls off more sharply, with way fewer memorable albums.


In a # vs # contest I think I'd have to go with

In Rainbows > Third
Neon Bible > Fleet Foxes
Sound of Silver > Dear Science
Kala > For Emma, Forever Ago
Person Pitch > Vampire Weekend
Boxer > Oracular Spectacular
Mirrored < Dig!!! Lazarus, Dig!!!
Untrue < Microcastle
The Reminder < Santogold
Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga > The Seldom Seen Kid
White Chalk < Hercules and Love Affair
Cross > Tha Carter III
Strawberry Jam > Med Sud I Eyrum Vid Spilum Endalaust
Sky Blue Sky > In Ghost Colours
Grinder man < Glasvegas
Of Montreal > New Amerykuh
Graduation > Nouns
The Good, the band, and the Queen < Made in the Dark
Icky Thump > Stay Positive
Night Falls Over Kortedela < The Age of the Understatement

I give it to 2007 13-7. There are just many more albums from 07 that I listen to regularly, and I feel that the distance at the top is huge.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

Here's how I'd do that same thing using my fun little number system.

Here's my version. (Note, most of the 2007 albums aren't in my system yet so only a few of the top ones are scored).


LCD Soundsystem - Sound of Silver 64.62 > Portishead - Third 57.18
The National - Boxer 61.32 > TV On The Radio - Dear Science 38.90
MIA - Kala 55.31 > Erykah Badu - New Amerykah 32.43
Miranda Lambert - Crazy Ex Girlfriend > Hercules and Love Affair - Hercules and Love Affair 32.16
Okkervil River - The Stage Names > Drive By Truckers - Brighter Than Creation's Dark 30.36
Robert Plant - Raising Sand > Blitzen Trapper - Furr 26.05
Radiohead - In Rainbows > Frightened Rabbit - The Midnight Organ Flight 26.02
Patty Griffin - Children Running Through < Lindstrom - Where You Go I Go Too 25.96
Spoon - Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga < Nick Cave - Dig Lazarus, Dig!!! 25.95
Jens Lekman - Night Falls Over Kortedala > Gang Gang Dance - Saint Dymphna 23.18
Of Montreal - Hissing Fauna > Spiritualized - Songs In A&E 23.14
A Place To Bury Strangers - s/t < Deerhunter - Microcastle 19.68
Band Of Horses - Cease To Begin < The Bellrays - Hard, Sweet, and Sticky 19.66
Grinderman - Grinderman < Paavoharju - Laulu Laakson Kukista 19.60
Burial - Untrue < Fleet Foxes - Fleet Foxes 19.59
White Stripes - Icky Thump < The Bug - London Zoo 19.57
Animal Collective - Strawberry Jam < Dungen - 4 19.57
Amy Winehouse - Back To Black < Blue Sky Black Death - Slow Burning Lights 19.53
Patrick Wolf - The Magic Position < Fennesz - Black Sea 18.93
Tegan and Sara - The Con < Beck - Modern Guilt 16.81

As you can see in my list, 2007 dominates at the beginning, but if The Con were in my system I doubt it would even be above 10.

Actually, now that I look at it, !!! - Myth Takes and Feist - The Reminder probably ought to be somewhere in my top 20 for 2007, but that doesn't change the trend.

In 2008, I have to go all the way down to #42 before I say "I probably won't ever listen to that again." For 2007 it happens at #32.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

I just took the AM T20 for each year. If I were to do just my personal T20 the game is essentially different.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

Oh, yeah, the critics did a way better job picking favorites in 2007 than 2008, I don't disagree with that.

Although I just did the same exercise you did and it came out a wash 10-10.

I think many of the best albums in 2008 are in genres neglected outside the US like folk and country-rock. A lot more of my 2007 faves are near the top of the critic's list than my 2008 faves.

Re: 2008 albums: Predicting AM all-time positions

Indeed I feel that the best albums of the entire decade are musically diverse, and span a ton of genres. Compare the top 10 albums of our 90s poll to this hypothetical 00 T10


OK Computer
Automatic for the People
Nevermind
Odelay
Loveless
Blue Lines
The Bends
The Soft Bulletin
Grace
If You're Feeling Sinister

Massive Attack stands alone amidst a pool of alternative rock.

Kid A
Funeral
Illinois
Is This It
Yankee Foxtrot Hotel
Elephant
White Blood Cells
Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots
Sound of Silver
Speakerboxxx/The Love Below

Here you have alt-rock joined by electronica, rap, folk, blues, psychedellic pop, and whatever genre you would like to classify Kid A in.