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For the past two years, I’ve been trying my hand at predicting which of the previous year’s albums will make the all-time top 3000 – including what order – in the next site update. As you may or may not remember, there is nothing at all scientific about how I compile this list: I simply take the number of points earned by each album on the AM end-of-year spreadsheet and then add to that number a) the album’s Metacritic score and b) its AMG star rating.
Considering how rudimentary this calculation is, I’ve been surprisingly accurate. When I did this last year, I made sure to note that my predictions were based ONLY on the above numbers and that the actual results were sure to be skewed by the addition of all of the EOD lists. This was true in one significant respect: I predicted that 51 2009 albums would make the top 3000, but none of the 19 that I had placed in the 2001-3000 category actually cracked the list (all ending up as Bubblers). However, the 32 others all made it, with none ranking lower than #2295 (the post below this one will list those albums, with their current AM rankings). This is largely due to the fact that there was a surprisingly sharp dividing line on the AM spreadsheet for 2009; those 32 albums had also been the initial top 32 on the spreadsheet, and there was a fairly steep point drop (47 to 37) between #’s 32 and 33, indicating a remarkably strong critical consensus on what the very best albums of 2009 were. (The one 2009 entry that I missed entirely was the lowest-ranked one, Tinariwen’s IMIDIWAN: COMPANIONS.)
The consensus for 2010 is concentrated more in the upper regions of the spreadsheet, with 15 clear standouts followed by a crowded field of contenders. I have no idea how many of last year’s albums will -actually- end up in the top 3000 this time around, so I’m going to hedge my bets a little by listing the 37 that I’m certain will make it, followed by 15 more marked as “possible.”
TOP 500:
Arcade Fire, THE SUBURBS
The National, HIGH VIOLET
Kanye West, MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED FANTASY
Beach House, TEEN DREAM
LCD Soundsystem, THIS IS HAPPENING
501-1000:
Janelle Monae, THE ARCHANDROID
Deerhunter, HALCYON DIGEST
Caribou, SWIM
Big Boi, SIR LUCIOUS LEFT FOOT: THE SON OF CHICO DUSTY
Ariel Pink’s Haunted Graffiti, BEFORE TODAY
The Black Keys, BROTHERS
Joanna Newsom, HAVE ONE ON ME
Flying Lotus, COSMOGRAMMA
Vampire Weekend, CONTRA
Sufjan Stevens, THE AGE OF ADZ
1001-2000:
Sleigh Bells, TREATS
Gorillaz, PLASTIC BEACH
Robyn, BODY TALK
Four Tet, THERE IS LOVE IN YOU
These New Puritans, HIDDEN
Foals, TOTAL LIFE FOREVER
Yeasayer, ODD BLOOD
Gil Scott-Heron, I’M NEW HERE
Best Coast, CRAZY FOR YOU
Grinderman, GRINDERMAN 2
2001-3000:
MGMT, CONGRATULATIONS
Titus Andronicus, THE MONITOR
Swans, MY FATHER WILL GUIDE ME UP A ROPE TO THE SKY
Gonjasufi, A SUFI & A KILLER
Warpaint, THE FOOL
Pantha Du Prince, BLACK NOISE
John Grant, QUEEN OF DENMARK
The Walkmen, LISBON
Twin Shadow, FORGET
Neil Young, LE NOISE
Erykah Badu, NEW AMERYKAH, PT. 2: RETURN OF THE ANKH
The Roots, HOW I GOT OVER
Possible additional entries:
Hot Chip, ONE LIFE STAND
Crystal Castles, CRYSTAL CASTLES [II]
The Tallest Man on Earth, THE WILD HUNT
Laura Marling, I SPEAK BECAUSE I CAN
Salem, KING NIGHT
Owen Pallett, HEARTLAND
No Age, EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN
Surfer Blood, ASTRO COAST
Mount Kimbie, CROOKS & LOVERS
Tame Impala, INNERSPEAKER
Emeralds, DOES IT LOOK LIKE I’M HERE?
Spoon, TRANSFERENCE
Robert Plant, BAND OF JOY
Avi Buffalo, AVI BUFFALO
Jamey Johnson, THE GUITAR SONG
Artist, TITLE / Actual Top 3000 Position
TOP 500:
Animal Collective, MERRIWEATHER POST PAVILION / 128
Grizzly Bear, VECKATIMEST / 335
The xx, xx / 437
Phoenix, WOLFGANG AMADEUS PHOENIX / 559
Dirty Projectors, BITTE ORCA / 548
Fever Ray, FEVER RAY / 719
Yeah Yeah Yeahs, IT'S BLITZ! / 726
501-1000:
The Flaming Lips, EMBRYONIC / 866
Fuck Buttons, TAROT SPORT / 847
The Pains of Being Pure at Heart, THE PAINS OF BEING PURE AT HEART / 1085
The Horrors, PRIMARY COLOURS / 1100
Bill Callahan, SOMETIMES I WISH WE WERE AN EAGLE / 1004
Girls, ALBUM / 1252
1001-2000:
Wilco, WILCO (THE ALBUM) / 1364
Wild Beasts, TWO DANCERS / 1320
The Antlers, HOSPICE / 1074
Raekwon, ONLY BUILT 4 CUBAN LINX…PT. II / 1120
Mastodon, CRACK THE SKYE / 1658
Antony & the Johnsons, THE CRYING LIGHT / 1450
Bat for Lashes, TWO SUNS / 1437
St. Vincent, ACTOR / 1628
Neko Case, MIDDLE CYCLONE / 1418
Atlas Sound, LOGOS / 1633
Sunn O))), MONOLITHS AND DIMENSIONS / 2140
Sonic Youth, THE ETERNAL / 1965
Mos Def, THE ECSTATIC / 1530
Arctic Monkeys, HUMBUG / 1600
Manic Street Preachers, JOURNAL FOR PLAGUE LOVERS / 1917
Passion Pit, MANNERS / 2183
Florence & the Machine, LUNGS / 1892
Camera Obscura, MY MAUDLIN CAREER / 2295
Japandroids, POST-NOTHING / 2059
[Missed: Tinariwen, IMIDIWAN: COMPANIONS / 2575]
You think Archandroid is out of the top 500?
Your system is very accurate for such a simple method.
Judgment call. The top 5 all ended up with a "score" of 200 or better, and I figured that was a good cutoff point. I can easily see Monae and Deerhunter making the top 500, though.
Seeing this reminded me how odd the critics choices were in 2010. I absolutely love a good portion of these albums, but feel just as strongly against many others. I can see albums like How I Got Over, My Father Will Guide Me Up a Rope to the Sky, A Sufi and a Killer, and Does It Look Like I'm Here being my picks in future Moderately Acclaimed polls. But 4 out of the top 5 (IMO, of course, with Kanye being the exception) belong nowhere near the top 500, and The ArchAndroid and Cosmogramma (among others) deserve better than the 500-1000 range.
1-200:
None
201-500:
Arcade Fire, THE SUBURBS
The National, HIGH VIOLET
Kanye West, MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED FANTASY
Beach House, TEEN DREAM
501-1000:
LCD Soundsystem, THIS IS HAPPENING
Janelle Monae, THE ARCHANDROID
Deerhunter, HALCYON DIGEST
Caribou, SWIM
Big Boi, SIR LUCIOUS LEFT FOOT: THE SON OF CHICO DUSTY
Ariel Pink’s Haunted Graffiti, BEFORE TODAY
The Black Keys, BROTHERS
1001-2000:
Joanna Newsom, HAVE ONE ON ME
Flying Lotus, COSMOGRAMMA
Vampire Weekend, CONTRA
Sufjan Stevens, THE AGE OF ADZ
Sleigh Bells, TREATS
Gorillaz, PLASTIC BEACH
Robyn, BODY TALK
Four Tet, THERE IS LOVE IN YOU
These New Puritans, HIDDEN
Foals, TOTAL LIFE FOREVER
2001-3000:
Yeasayer, ODD BLOOD
Gil Scott-Heron, I’M NEW HERE
Best Coast, CRAZY FOR YOU
Grinderman, GRINDERMAN 2
MGMT, CONGRATULATIONS
Titus Andronicus, THE MONITOR
Swans, MY FATHER WILL GUIDE ME UP A ROPE TO THE SKY
Gonjasufi, A SUFI & A KILLER
Warpaint, THE FOOL
Pantha Du Prince, BLACK NOISE
John Grant, QUEEN OF DENMARK
The Walkmen, LISBON
Twin Shadow, FORGET
Bubblers:
Neil Young, LE NOISE
Erykah Badu, NEW AMERYKAH, PT. 2: RETURN OF THE ANKH
The Roots, HOW I GOT OVER
Hot Chip, ONE LIFE STAND
Crystal Castles, CRYSTAL CASTLES [II]
The Tallest Man on Earth, THE WILD HUNT
Laura Marling, I SPEAK BECAUSE I CAN
Salem, KING NIGHT
Owen Pallett, HEARTLAND
No Age, EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN
Surfer Blood, ASTRO COAST
Mount Kimbie, CROOKS & LOVERS
Tame Impala, INNERSPEAKER
Emeralds, DOES IT LOOK LIKE I’M HERE?
Spoon, TRANSFERENCE
Robert Plant, BAND OF JOY
Avi Buffalo, AVI BUFFALO
Jamey Johnson, THE GUITAR SONG
Judgment call. The top 5 all ended up with a "score" of 200 or better, and I figured that was a good cutoff point. I can easily see Monae and Deerhunter making the top 500, though.
I knew that looked weird almost from the moment I posted it. I meant that the top 5 had scores of -300- or better.
I should also note that four of the albums (John Grant, Mount Kimbie, Tame Impala, and Emeralds) do not have Metacritic scores. They all had 40+ points on the spreadsheet, and I didn't want to punish them unfairly, so I assigned each of them a score of 70 to compensate. (I know Henrik has a method of dealing with factors like this as well, although his is obviously a little more sophisticated...)
Speaking of updates, when will 2008 and 2009 be added to the songs list?
I would also point out that Anais Mitchell - Hadestown has the highest score of the year on Any Decent Music, which is another Metacritic-style site, even though it doesn't have a score on Metacritic.
Of course I'm not sure enough critics have actually heard it for it to make the list. At least not for a few more years.
Of course I'm not sure enough critics have actually heard it for it to make the list. At least not for a few more years.
I look at ADM way more than Metacritic these days. Metacritic's redesign was awful in my opinion, and I hate how their charts are always clogged up with reissues at the top. ADM corresponds more with my taste as well.