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Any guesses on what will win the Pazz and Jop polls this year?
My guess is that Arcade Fire wins best album for "The Suburbs."
Best song typically seems to be a hip-hop or R&B tune, so I'm guessing Janelle Monae may win for "Cold War" this year. Or they may pick LCD Soundsystem's "I Can Change."
Any thought on who they'll pick?
I assume you're talking about the Village Voice's Pazz & Jop, not our own here at AM. In either case, I would guess that THE SUBURBS is probably the favorite; at this point, the only other possible winner I can imagine would be THE ARCHANDROID.
(All bets are off if Kanye West's album lives up to the hype - don't forget, his first two albums won the poll and the other two made the top ten.)
Let's also not forget that Radiohead's next album is due before the end of the year. Still, I think The Suburbs will probably win.
For songs, I think if Cee-Lo's "Fuck You!" blows up and hits top 10 on the charts (it's at 18 now), it becomes the immediate favorite. Kanye's "Power" also probably has an outside shot unless he has another (much bigger) hit before the end of the year. Otherwise I agree with the songs already mentioned. Maybe Arcade Fire's "Ready to Start" will show up too?
It would be a minor travesty for such a boring album as The Suburbs to win.
Although I wouldn't mind seeing The Suburbs at #1 I don't think it will be - Arcade Fire's previous two albums only managed #6 and #5. Whenever there's a universally acclaimed hip-hop album it tends to end up at the top of the poll (Stankonia, Speakerboxxx/The Love Below, The College Dropout and Late Registration were all #1). So I'm guessing Big Boi will triumph, unless Kanye's upcoming album is even better. On the other hand, it's been 12 years since a solo female artist topped the poll, and considering how much love there is among American critics for Janelle Monae, she might kick some Big Boi and Kanye ass.
Janelle Monae, Arcade Fire, and Big Boi are the big favorites.
I suppose LCD Soundsystem has a distant shot. Sufjan Stevens' is too divisive, but will factor highly.
I hope Kanye doesn't win. Or if he does, he does so on material that's more his own inspiration instead of, as he's done in the past, take credit for rapping over other people's songs without even remixing them that much.
I'm not sure what the Pazz and Jop poll is, but if it refers to the EOY list tally, then my money is Joanna Newsom's Have One On Me. I think the praise is spread wide across the globe. Suburbs, Archandriod, Sir Lucius Left-foot have there fair share of detractors. It's also worth noting that Sufjan Stevens Age Of Adz is a contender on the merit of some extremely generous reviews (Detractors as well).
I can see Newsom making the top 10, she made it in 2006 and back in 2004 was inside the 20, but the american reception of Have One On Me wasn't as glowing as the european and worldwide. They were divided. So since is an american survey i don't see her topping, hopefully she might make the top 5, a first to her, but i don't see her doing a Joni Mitchell in 74, or Phair in 93 or Harvey in 95. When it comes to europeans.. well, she might make a good amount of them and even topping and ranking pretty high. Absolutely agree that of all the five big releases of the year she's the one with a bigger projection when it comes to critics, she was everywhere receiving raves for her tour and critics still praising the record. If she tops it AWESOME, but the chances are not that big, and this is coming to her biggest supporter posting on this forum
(Although i kinda had a vision of the album making number 2, go figure)
I would have to say Big Boi is the favorite, as making the best album has to count for something. He's topped the poll twice, and Sir Lucious Leftfoot is as good and arguably better than either Speakerboxxx or Stankonia (B.O.B excluded). The fact that SLL:SoCD is the top rated American album on Stefan's chart is a pretty good indicator of this. In fact, the last two albums to hold that position - MPP and Dear Science - also topped the poll.
So I have Big Boi as the favorite, with Janelle Monae as a close second, and maybe The National and LCD Soundsystem as contenders too. I think American critics were a little more "meh" on The Suburbs than non-US critics, and it probably doesn't have the gumption to take first in this stacked year.
Kanye West is the x-factor: if My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy is good (likely) than he'll almost definitely T10, and if it's better than College Dropout or Late Registration (unlikely) than he'll probably win.