You may recall that last summer I posted a list of predictions regarding which 2008 albums were going to make it into the all-time top 3000 in the next update - and in what order. I created this list using a calculation that couldn't possibly have been simpler: I took the number of points that each album had accumulated on the AM end-of-year spreadsheet and just added a) its Metacritic score and b) its AMG star rating. That's it.

Surprisingly enough, I ended up coming a lot closer to the mark than you might think; I predicted 55 albums would make the list (including 2007 albums FOR EMMA and ORACULAR SPECTACULAR, which were obviously no-brainers), and 50 of them did. The only new entry I missed (not counting 2005's ROBYN) was AT MOUNT ZOOMER. Two of my picks that didn't end up in the top 3000 were my bottom two, and another was the Mars Volta album, which I included because I clearly thought the Tom Moon 1000 RECORDINGS book would have more impact than it wound up having. (My 2008 predictions will be re-posted in the post directly below this one, including their eventual current top 3000 positions.)

So I thought I'd do it again for the 2009 albums. It won't be quite as close to the mark this time around, for the simple reason that there are considerably more factors in play: the EOD lists, the new edition of 1001 ALBUMS...YOU DIE (which contains a few of last year's records), and the SPIN 1985-2009 list (ditto). The following should be read, then, as my predictions of where the 2009 albums would land in the upcoming update IF the EOY lists were all that counted. (I do believe, however, that all of these albums will be in the top 3000.)

TOP 500:
Animal Collective, MERRIWEATHER POST PAVILION
Grizzly Bear, VECKATIMEST
The xx, xx
Phoenix, WOLFGANG AMADEUS PHOENIX
Dirty Projectors, BITTE ORCA
Fever Ray, FEVER RAY
Yeah Yeah Yeahs, IT'S BLITZ!

501-1000:
The Flaming Lips, EMBRYONIC
Fuck Buttons, TAROT SPORT
The Pains of Being Pure at Heart, THE PAINS OF BEING PURE AT HEART
The Horrors, PRIMARY COLOURS
Bill Callahan, SOMETIMES I WISH WE WERE AN EAGLE
Girls, ALBUM

1001-2000:
Wilco, WILCO (THE ALBUM)
Wild Beasts, TWO DANCERS
The Antlers, HOSPICE
Raekwon, ONLY BUILT 4 CUBAN LINX…PT. II
Mastodon, CRACK THE SKYE
Antony & the Johnsons, THE CRYING LIGHT
Bat for Lashes, TWO SUNS
St. Vincent, ACTOR
Neko Case, MIDDLE CYCLONE
Atlas Sound, LOGOS
Sunn O))), MONOLITHS AND DIMENSIONS
Sonic Youth, THE ETERNAL
Mos Def, THE ECSTATIC
Arctic Monkeys, HUMBUG
Manic Street Preachers, JOURNAL FOR PLAGUE LOVERS
Passion Pit, MANNERS
Florence & the Machine, LUNGS
Camera Obscura, MY MAUDLIN CAREER
Japandroids, POST-NOTHING

2001-3000:
Yo La Tengo, POPULAR SONGS
Converge, AXE TO FALL
La Roux, LA ROUX
Richard Hawley, TRUELOVE'S GUTTER
Dinosaur Jr., FARM
HEALTH, GET COLOR
Future of the Left, TRAVELS WITH MYSELF AND ANOTHER
Monsters of Folk, MONSTERS OF FOLK
Pearl Jam, BACKSPACER
Baroness, BLUE RECORD
Micachu and the Shapes, JEWELLERY
Them Crooked Vultures, THEM CROOKED VULTURES
Bob Dylan, TOGETHER THROUGH LIFE
The Low Anthem, OH MY GOD, CHARLIE DARWIN
Maxwell, BLACKSUMMER'S NIGHT
The Big Pink, A BRIEF HISTORY OF LOVE
The Avett Brothers, I AND LOVE AND YOU
The Decemberists, THE HAZARDS OF LOVE
Leonard Cohen, LIVE IN LONDON

Artist, TITLE / Actual Top 3000 Position:

TOP 500:
Portishead, THIRD / 263
FLEET FOXES / 278
TV on the Radio, DEAR SCIENCE / 365
Bon Iver, FOR EMMA, FOREVER AGO / 431
VAMPIRE WEEKEND / 442

501-1000:
MGMT, ORACULAR SPECTACULAR / 598
Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds, DIG!!! LAZARUS DIG!!! / 736
Deerhunter, MICROCASTLE / WEIRD ERA CONT. / 677
SANTOGOLD / 868
Elbow, THE SELDOM SEEN KID / 1000
HERCULES AND LOVE AFFAIR / 908
Lil Wayne, THA CARTER III / 1058

1001-2000:
Sigur Ros, MED SUD I EYRUM VID SPILUM ENDALAUST / 1002
Cut Copy, IN GHOST COLOURS / 987
GLASVEGAS / 1476
Erykah Badu, NEW AMERYKAH (4th WORLD WAR) / 1111
No Age, NOUNS / 1249
Hot Chip, MADE IN THE DARK / 1478
The Hold Steady, STAY POSITIVE / 1248
The Last Shadow Puppets, THE AGE OF THE UNDERSTATEMENT / 1506
Fuck Buttons, STREET HORRRSING / 1582
The Bug, LONDON ZOO / 1280
Kings of Leon, ONLY BY THE NIGHT / 1561
M83, SATURDAYS=YOUTH / 1369
Foals, ANTIDOTES / 1805
Coldplay, VIVA LA VIDA OR DEATH AND ALL HIS FRIENDS / 2171
Gang Gang Dance, SAINT DYMPHNA / 2187
Metallica, DEATH MAGNETIC / 2696
Late of the Pier, FANTASY BLACK CHANNEL / 2210
Flying Lotus, LOS ANGELES / 1699
Lindstrom, WHERE YOU GO I GO TOO / 1952
Dodos, VISITER / 1793
CRYSTAL CASTLES / 2130
Lykke Li, YOUTH NOVELS / 2432
Fucked Up, THE CHEMISTRY OF COMMON LIFE / 2026

2001-3000:
Girl Talk, FEED THE ANIMALS / 2527
Neon Neon, STAINLESS STYLE / 2744
Why?, ALOPECIA / 2437
R.E.M., ACCELERATE / 2694
The Raconteurs, CONSOLERS OF THE LONELY / 2706
Beck, MODERN GUILT / 2486
Shearwater, ROOK / 2225
Randy Newman, HARPS & ANGELS / 2639
Drive-by Truckers, BRIGHTER THAN CREATION’S DARK / 2493
Death Cab for Cutie, NARROW STAIRS / 2829
Beach House, DEVOTION / 2894
The Mars Volta, THE BEDLAM IN GOLIATH* / XXX
British Sea Power, DO YOU LIKE ROCK MUSIC? / BU
The Gaslight Anthem, THE ’59 SOUND / BU
My Morning Jacket, EVIL URGES / 2745
Spiritualized, SONGS IN A & E / 2413
The Kills, MIDNIGHT BOOM / 2717
The Walkmen, YOU & ME / 2892
Los Campesinos!, HOLD ON NOW, YOUNGSTER… / BU
Okkervil River, THE STAND INS / BU

*As I indicated above, this album isn't here based on the calculation but because it was a main entry in the Tom Moon book (the only 2008 album to earn that distinction). I just stuck it in the middle of the last group.

Too bad Merriweather will end up before Strawberry Jam. I like the latter more.

Funny to see Manic Street Preachers and Pearl Jam? I didn't read about it, are these albums that good? And, since I think you already have these albums as you're making that crazy "Project 3000" thing, is the Flaming Lips one good as well?

You do know, about that, along the EOD and EOY lists, there has been a bunch of all-time lists coming lately, yes?

Good luck!

Journal For Plague Lovers is pretty damn good, yeah

I love The Flaming Lips, but I think that Embryonic is pretty overrated. Just my two cents.

I LOVE Pearl Jam but frankly I find about half of Backspacer to be a bore (I really wasn't a fan of s/t either). I don't understand how Binaural was virtually ignored but this one has received a fair amount of acclaim. The Manic's album is great if you like vintage MSPs. I'm pretty fond of Embryonic as well (although it doesn't hold a candle to Soft Bulleton or Yoshimi, it's worlds better than At War With the Mystics).

I agree with most of your choices but I don't know about The xx and Fever Ray in the top 500.

I'd also probably bump Raekwon up to the top 1000.

I have a feeling No Line on Horizon will make it.

xx is in the top 200 on the EOD spreadsheet, though. The only thing that might keep it out of the top 500 is the fact that it didn't make some of the other lists that will factor in, but I doubt it.

Thanxxx Harold for posting this; I can't wait 'till November...as you mentioned a few years back there will be a certain PURITY concerning this update, considering that not only the 2009 albums will be included but also the recent EOD ones and last but not least all the too many too mention great songs lists (e.g. Pitchfork 500, etc..) We should see a complete change in the lower half of the AM 3000 songs...6 decades neatly summed up in 3000 albums and 3000 songs! Thanxxx Henrik for this huge task!

One more thing, I'd put White Denim - Fits in the 2001-3000 group.

Was the EOD spreadsheet predictive of previous years? I thought that uses far different rules from the AM list.

The spreadsheet as an aggregate doesn't figure into the calculations for the all-time list, but all the individual EOY lists certainly do. So it has -some- predictive value, but not 1:1.

FITS fell considerably short of the 108-total-points cutoff that I selected for the top 3000: 18 spreadsheet points + 81 Metascore + 4 stars at AMG = 103. As I said, this ain't science, but the numbers are what they are. If I had to pick a low scorer that might sneak into the top 3000, it would probably be THE BLUEPRINT 3, which did a LOT better in the EOY lists (32 spreadsheet points) than its rather low Metascore of 65 would have predicted.