If you follow classic bike prices there is no denying, and it's an opinion shared by many in the trade, that prices are softening...
In a number of recent auctions many of the bikes, including exotica, have failed to reach 'estimate' or have simply failed to sell...
It's probable the market is going through a readjustment as a result of rapidly rising and inflated prices over the last few years.
I personally believe that quite a few people who are 'investment' buyers have got their fingers burnt buying not particularly well restored bikes that they assumed they would make money on...
The fact is often these buyers don't research a market (and particular model) well enough before buying..
The investment model of classic bikes (as opposed to the users model) relies on a perceived guaranteed return over a reasonable time scale and depends on ever upward prices to function in that way and thus maintain confidence...
I would suggest the person who spent over £15000 on a Norton 16H (probably double the 'normal' price) will have a long wait for a profit..or even to get his money back...
It's hard to believe that the purchaser wasn't a misguided investor...I can't believe the average Norton owner would consider paying so much for a mundane model when the same can be had for much less...
That amount of money would realistically buy you a 500 Gold Star!!.. ...Ian
And not forgetting that a lot of us a falling off our perches or have gotten beyond riding for medical reasons.
Add to that the estate stuff that comes on line from owners downsizing into retirement villages or nursing homes .
So a lot of stuff that has been sitting in sheds for a long time is surfacing on a daily basis while the potential market ( baby boomers ) is declining in numbers.
This last year has seen 9 of my motorcycling acquaintences passing on and 5 more with stroke /heart attacks that means their motorcycling days are over.
Then as you said , the illinformed investors who think any old bike will end up being worth a Brough or SOS.
If you believe the advertised prices, any A50 - A 65 is worth $ 20,000+
Any M20 will be $ 15,000
Yes, I was discussing with some friends the other day the possibility that the 'British' side of the classic bike scene may be in the early stages of a long term decline...
The people who started riding on, or had any connection to, the products of the British motorcycle industry are in decline...
Speaking to an acquaintance who makes his living spraying motorcycle parts he says he no longer makes the bulk of his money from custom work or from classic British bikes but from people restoring older Japanese bikes...
These people, he says, are getting into earlier Jap machines as much to get away from 'over technical' new machines as from a specific desire to preserve anything old...
If there is a decline in interest, then the effect will inevitably be oversupply and reduced prices...
Another consideration is that in the past motorcyclists were a dedicated bunch who got the bug for life...
Many of todays 'fashionista' motorcyclists are far more likely to move on to something else after a few years...
Investors have their place in the market but too many of them is a bad thing I believe...Further, they don't generally involve themselves in restoration, only the results of that activity and if the market falters they too will move on to other more lucrative commodities...Ian
Another problem with 'investors' is that as they see the prices of their investments falling and before they reach free fall, they have to take drastic action. During the 80's when we had the big bank crash many investors put their money into classic cars and got their fingers burnt when the market went into decline. Since many had their cars insured for an agreed sum, the obvious answer was mysterious garage fires, which not only put up insurance policies but removed rare and unusual vehicles from the sales pool. I would hate to see the same happen to even a lowly 16H or whatever.....