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DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 11, 2014, 7:18 PM (IDT)



IS executes Iraqi soldiers

The Kurdish Peshmerga fight against encroaching Islamic State troops gained
a broad new dimension Monday, Aug. 11, when the US began airlifting large
quantities of military equipment, including ordnance, from Jordan and Israel
to the semiautonomous KRG capital, Irbil. The US maintains 10,000 special
operations and marine forces at the King Hussein Air Base in northern
Jordan, with large stocks of ammunition that were originally destined for
the rebels fighting Bashar Assad in Syria. They are now being redirected to
the Kurdish effort to stop the rapid Islamist march on their republic, along
with supplies from the US emergency stores maintained in the Israeli Negev.

debkafile's military sources reveal that for some weeks, those stores and
other US facilities in southern Israel have been in the sights of IS
elements, which arrived in Sinai six months ago to reinforce Ansar Beit
Al-Maqdis, the local offshoot of Al Qaeda.

The US, Israel and Egypt have taken care to keep this development under
their hats. But in the last month, while Israel was engaged in Operation
Defensive Edge against the Palestinian Hamas, IS and Al-Maqdis shot rockts
from Sinai at US and Israeli military facilities in the Negev, in support of
Hamas. Their attacks were described by Western observers as intense on some
days as the Palestinian rocket barrage against the Israeli population.

The speed with which the American military effort in northern Iraq has
spiraled in four days - from limited air strikes on IS targets Friday, Aug.
8, to direct arms supplies Monday - will soon confront President Barack
Obama with the need for a speedy decision on whether to send American troops
back to Iraq.

US air strikes are clearly limited by the lack of an organized list of
targets. All they can do now is bomb chance targets as they are picked up by
reconnaissance planes or satellites. To be effective, the US Air Force needs
to be guided in to target by special operations forces on the ground, who
can supply precise data on the movements of IS fighters and mark them for
air attack with laser designators.

Another shortcoming is the small number of US fighter-bombers available for
Iraq. The aircraft which conducted four attacks on IS forces came from the
USS George HW Bush aircraft carrier in the Gulf, which has 70 warplanes on
board. This is not enough aerial firepower to stop the Islamists' advance.

They are also disadvantaged by being prevented from striking IS forces in
Syria, a limitation which further curtails their effectiveness, as it did in
the US war against Saddam Hussein.

In the years 2003-2007, Al Qaeda had the great advantage of an open Syrian
border. Instead of maintaining the bulk of its forces in Iraq, they could
slip across into Syria out of range of US attack.

Obama will not overcome any of these military issues by his determined focus
on sorting out the political situation in Baghdad. Replacing Prime Minister
Nouri Al-Maliki by having his rival, Deputy Speaker Haider al-Abadi,
nominated to replace him Monday - even with the backing of Sunni and Kurdish
factions who detest Maliki - won't affect the warfront. This change may
generate inter-factional violence in the capital. And it will not quickly
stiffen the Iraqi Army or enhance the Kurdish Peshmerga's ability to curb
the Islamists' rapid advance. Bringing them up to scratch by restructuring
and retraining them on modern operational lines, and providing the Iraqi
army with an effective air force, will take anything from two to four years.

Last week it was discovered that, among the Islamist fighters who died in US
air strikes Friday and Saturday, was a large group, estimated by
intelligence sources as up to 200, of American citizens fighting in the
ranks of Al Qaeda's IS in Kurdistan and western Iraq.

The Islamic State never releases facts and figures about its losses.
However, Sunday, Aug. 10, a spate of threats imbued with a sense of revenge
started appearing on social media, such as: "This is a message for every
American citizen. You are the target of every Muslim in the world wherever
you are." Another was more brutal: "ISIS is ready to cut off your heads,
dear Americans, O sons of ******** Come quickly."

The approaching 13th anniversary of the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks on America is
causing concern in US intelligence and counter-terrorist quarters about
possible surprises ahead.

This mess just keeps growing and spreading. Looks like eventually every other country is going to get sucked into this black hole of a war. Avi Lipkin was on Prophecy in the News last week talking to Gary Stearman about the geo-political aspects and it was really good. Since he lives in Israel he has a perspective on these areas that is very clear. Here is the link:

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This aired on August 6, 2014 and the interview with Gary and Avi starts at the 6.30 minute mark.